The physical SIM card has been part of our phones for more than three decades, surviving almost every major change in mobile technology. But could we now be approaching the point where inserting one into a new phone starts to feel outdated? GSMA Intelligence forecasts that eSIM will account for 4.9 billion smartphone connections by 2030, representing 55% of all smartphone connections worldwide. If more than half of the world’s smartphones are heading in that direction, the question is no longer simply whether eSIM will become mainstream, but where that transition will happen fastest and what will push each market there.
The answer is more complicated than looking at today’s eSIM leaders. Analysis coming from Holafly’s Global eSIM Index 2026, which evaluated 50 markets worldwide, revealed a group of countries where the conditions for adoption are changing particularly quickly, even when their current position in the global ranking might suggest otherwise. From China opening eSIM to smartphones for the first time to South Korea using regulation to make it cheaper than a physical SIM, Brazil seeing a new generation of compatible devices enter the market and operators in Qatar competing to make activation easier, the next phase of eSIM adoption is being shaped by very different forces.
The Holafly Global eSIM Index identified China, Chile, Qatar, South Korea, Brazil, Poland, Israel, Australia, Malaysia and Oman as ten markets to watch. Their current positions range from Malaysia at #9 globally to Oman at #47, while the proportion of eSIM-compatible smartphones varies from just 9% in China to 60% in South Korea. What brings them together is not where they are today, but evidence that one or more of the barriers that have historically held eSIM adoption back are beginning to move.
- China (Global rank: #36) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 9% | Key driver: Regulatory opening
- Chile (Global rank: #33) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 50% | Key driver: Devices + digitalisation
- Qatar (Global rank: #25) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 50% | Key driver: Operator competition
- South Korea (Global rank: #23) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 60% | Key driver: Regulation + pricing
- Brazil (Global rank: #24) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 30% | Key driver: Device replacement
- Poland (Global rank: #15) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 48% | Key driver: Digital onboarding
- Israel (Global rank: #12) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 50% | Key driver: Regulation + infrastructure
- Australia (Global rank: #11) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 50% | Key driver: Legacy network shutdown
- Malaysia (Global rank: #9) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 40% | Key driver: Operator competition
- Oman (Global rank: #47) – eSIM-capable smartphones: 35% | Key driver: Digital-first disruption
Among them, China could represent the biggest potential catch-up story. The country currently ranks only #36 in Holafly’s Index and just 9% of its smartphone base is estimated to support eSIM, but that low starting point comes just as one of the technology’s biggest barriers has begun to disappear. In October 2025, China opened eSIM services to smartphones, allowing China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom to offer the technology after years in which its use had been largely restricted to wearables and IoT.
With mobile penetration at around 120% and one of the largest mobile ecosystems in the world, even a gradual transition of China’s enormous device base could significantly alter the global eSIM landscape. Strict identity verification, restrictions affecting foreign users and limitations around profile transfers remain, but the scale of the opportunity makes China difficult to ignore.
A similarly interesting transition is taking place in Chile, although for very different reasons. Around 50% of smartphones in the country are already estimated to be eSIM-compatible, the highest proportion among the Latin American markets included in the Index, ahead of Brazil and Colombia at 30%, Argentina at 25%, Mexico at 22% and Bolivia at 10%.
Holafly’s research describes Chile as experiencing an “aggressive transition toward eSIM” and moving towards an “eSIM-first phase”, suggesting that one of Latin America’s smaller mobile markets could move away from physical SIMs faster than some of the region’s largest economies.
South Korea shows how quickly the equation can change when policy actively encourages adoption. After a relatively slow start, the government pushed the implementation of eSIM in smartphones in 2022 and established an issuance price of KRW 2,750, around $1.80, compared with approximately KRW 7,700–8,800 for a physical SIM. The Index identifies this price difference as playing a critical role in accelerating adoption, and today around 60% of smartphones in the country are estimated to be compatible with eSIM. South Korea is now progressing towards newer eSIM standards that could make switching between operators even simpler, showing that regulation can accelerate adoption when it removes cost and practical barriers for consumers rather than adding new ones.
In Brazil, the change is happening in people’s pockets. While only around 30% of the country’s existing smartphone base currently supports eSIM, Holafly’s research estimates that approximately 60% of new smartphones sold in Brazil in 2026 could be compatible with the technology. As consumers gradually replace older devices, that gap between the installed base and new smartphone sales could narrow quickly, leaving regulation and activation requirements, including biometric identity verification, as increasingly important factors in determining how rapidly Brazil can turn hardware availability into actual adoption.
Competition between operators is creating another route forward in Qatar, where around half of smartphones already support eSIM and the Index finds that adoption has followed a faster growth curve than the global average. Competition between Ooredoo and Vodafone has increasingly extended to the activation experience, with digital identification, facial biometrics and AI-supported processes being used to make joining a network faster. Rather than adoption being driven primarily by regulation or device replacement, Qatar demonstrates how operators themselves can accelerate the transition when ease of use becomes another area in which they compete for customers.
The remaining markets show just how varied that transition can be. Poland has experienced strong growth since 2022 as operator support, compatible devices and digital onboarding have developed together, while Australia’s 3G shutdown has contributed to a wider move towards newer 4G and 5G devices at the same time as digital identity and simplified activation reduce friction for users. Malaysia, already ranked #9 globally, is entering what Holafly’s Index describes as a critical phase towards mass adoption as competition intensifies, while in Israel, government intervention and the retirement of legacy 2G and 3G infrastructure are helping move eSIM further into the mainstream.
Perhaps the most unusual case is Oman. The country sits at #47 in the overall Index, largely because wider regulatory restrictions continue to hold the market back, yet one operator is already behaving as though the transition has happened. Vodafone Oman entered the market in 2022 with an app-based, digital-first model in which eSIM is the default activation standard, while the country’s 3G shutdown in 2025 has also encouraged the replacement of older devices with newer 4G and 5G models. It is a striking example of how innovation within a market can move considerably faster than the conditions surrounding it.
Together, these countries suggest that the move towards an eSIM-first world will be far less uniform than the global growth figures might imply. China is removing a regulatory barrier, South Korea has changed the economics for consumers, Australia is leaving legacy infrastructure behind, Brazil is replacing its device base, Chile is progressing through digitalisation and growing compatibility, and markets such as Qatar and Malaysia are being pushed forward by competition. The destination may increasingly look the same, but there is no single path countries are following to get there.
“The most interesting thing about the next phase of eSIM adoption is that there isn’t one factor determining which markets will move fastest,” said Chris Hills, VP Carriers at Holafly. “A change in regulation, the retirement of an old network, a new generation of smartphones or an operator making the experience significantly easier can all remove barriers very quickly. Looking at where those changes are happening gives us a much better indication of where the next eSIM-first markets could emerge than looking at adoption levels alone.”
Methodology
Holafly’s Global eSIM Index 2026 analyses 50 countries to understand how prepared different markets are for the transition from physical SIMs to eSIM, considering device compatibility, operator support, activation experience, regulation and wider market conditions.
